TY  - JOUR
PY  - 2017//
TI  - Final and dynamic mortality prediction from earthquakes in China
JO  - International journal of emergency management
A1  - Zhu, Xiaoxin
A1  - Sun, Baiqing
SP  - 131
EP  - 149
VL  - 13
IS  - 2
N2  - This paper aims at predicting the dynamic death tolls in earthquakes using a combination of case-based reasoning and a times series model from realistic perspective. The proposed methodology consists of three steps: 1) fuzzy clustering to classify Chinese earthquakes; 2) mortality rates calculating to predict the final death tolls; 3) time series modelling to predict dynamic number of deaths. The strength of this paper is that it provides scientific methods with overall forecast errors lower than 20%, and opens the door for conducting final and dynamic death forecasts with a qualitative and quantitative approach.        Keywords: humanitarian logistics; earthquakes; mortality prediction; CBR; case-based reasoning; times series model; China; dynamic modelling; China; seismic activity; death tolls; fuzzy clustering; fuzzy logic; classification; mortality rates; death forecasting.<p />  <p>Language: en</p>
LA  - en
SN  - 1471-4825
UR  - http://dx.doi.org/10.1504/IJEM.2017.10003686
ID  - ref1
ER  -