TY  - JOUR
PY  - 2019//
TI  - A meta-analysis of the crash risk of cannabis-positive drivers in culpability studies-avoiding interpretational bias
JO  - Accident analysis and prevention
A1  - Rogeberg, Ole
SP  - 69
EP  - 78
VL  - 123
IS  - 
N2  - BACKGROUND: Culpability studies, a common study design in the cannabis crash risk literature, typically report odds-ratios (OR) indicating the raised risks of a culpable accident. This parameter is of unclear policy relevance, and is frequently misinterpreted as an estimate of the increased crash risk, a practice that introduces a substantial "interpretational bias". <br><br>METHODS: A Bayesian statistical model for culpability study counts is developed to provide inference for both culpable and total crash risks, with a hierarchical effect specification to allow for meta-analysis across studies with potentially heterogeneous risk parameter values. The model is assessed in a bootstrap study and applied to data from 13 published culpability studies. <br><br>RESULTS: The model outperforms the culpability OR in bootstrap analyses. Used on actual study data, the average increase in crash risk is estimated at 1.28 (1.16-1.40). The pooled increased risk of a culpable crash is estimated as 1.42 (95% credibility interval 1.11-1.75), which is similar to pooled estimates using traditional ORs (1.46, 95% CI: 1.24-1.72). The attributable risk fraction of cannabis impaired driving is estimated to lie below 2% for all but two of the included studies. <br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Culpability ORs exaggerate risk increases and parameter uncertainty when misinterpreted as total crash ORs. The increased crash risk associated with THC-positive drivers in culpability studies is low.<br><br>Copyright © 2018 The Author. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.    Keywords: Cannabis impaired driving <p />  <p>Language: en</p>
LA  - en
SN  - 0001-4575
UR  - http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.aap.2018.11.011
ID  - ref1
ER  -