TY  - JOUR
PY  - 2019//
TI  - A novel risk score to predict post-trauma mortality in nonagenarians
JO  - Journal of emergencies, trauma and shock
A1  - Kopatsis, Anthony
A1  - Chetram, Vishaka K.
A1  - Kopatsis, Katherine
A1  - Morin, Nicholas
A1  - Wagner, Christine
SP  - 192
EP  - 197
VL  - 12
IS  - 3
N2  - BACKGROUND: Nonagenarians represent a rapidly growing age group who often have functional limitations and multiple comorbidities, predisposing them to trauma. AIMS: The purpose of this study was to identify patient characteristics, hospital complications, and comorbidities that predict in-hospital mortality in the nonagenarian population following trauma. We also sought to create a scoring system using these variables. SETTINGS AND DESIGN: This study was a retrospective chart review. <br><br>METHODS: We reviewed the medical records of 548 nonagenarian trauma patients admitted to two Level I trauma centers from 2006 to 2015. Statistical analysis was performed using logistic regression and a machine learning model, which calculated significant variables and computed a scoring system. <br><br>RESULTS: The in-hospital mortality rate was 7.1% (<i>n</i> = 39). Significant predictors of mortality were cardiac comorbidity, neuro-concussion, New Injury Severity Score (ISS) 16+, striking an object, ISS 25-75, and pulmonary and cardiac complications. Significant variables were assigned a numeric value. A score of 5+ carried a 41.1% mortality risk, 79% sensitivity, and 91% specificity. A score of 10+ had an associated 81.8% mortality risk with 31% specificity and 99% sensitivity. <br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Our findings identified reliable predictors of mortality in nonagenarian population posttrauma. The scoring system performs with good specificity and sensitivity and incrementally correlates with mortality risk.<p />  <p>Language: en</p>
LA  - en
SN  - 0974-2700
UR  - http://dx.doi.org/10.4103/JETS.JETS_145_18
ID  - ref1
ER  -