TY  - JOUR
PY  - 2019//
TI  - Analysis of the uncertainty of fuel model parameters in wildland fire modelling of a boreal forest in north-east China
JO  - International journal of wildland fire
A1  - Cai, Longyan
A1  - He, Hong S.
A1  - Liang, Yu
A1  - Wu, Zhiwei
A1  - Huang, Chao
SP  - 205
EP  - 215
VL  - 28
IS  - 3
N2  - Fire propagation is inevitably affected by fuel-model parameters during wildfire simulations and the uncertainty of the fuel-model parameters makes forecasting accurate fire behaviour very difficult. In this study, three different methods (Morris screening, first-order analysis and the Monte Carlo method) were used to analyse the uncertainty of fuel-model parameters with FARSITE model. The results of the uncertainty analysis showed that only a few fuel-model parameters markedly influenced the uncertainty of the model outputs, and many of the fuel-model parameters had little or no effect. The fire-spread rate is the driving force behind the uncertainty of other fire behaviours. Thus, the highly uncertain fuel-model parameters associated with spread rate should be used cautiously in wildfire simulations. Monte Carlo results indicated that the relationship between model input and output was non-linear and neglecting fuel-model parameter uncertainty of the model would magnify fire behaviours. Additionally, fuel-model parameters have high input uncertainty. Therefore, fuel-model parameters must be calibrated against actual fires. The highly uncertain fuel-model parameters with high spatial-temporal variability consisted of fuel-bed depth, live-shrub loading and 1-h time-lag loading are preferentially chosen as parameters to calibrate several wildfires.     Additional keywords: FARSITE, fire behaviour, fuel model, uncertainty analysis, wildfire modelling.<p />  <p>Language: en</p>
LA  - en
SN  - 1049-8001
UR  - http://dx.doi.org/10.1071/WF18083
ID  - ref1
ER  -