TY  - JOUR
PY  - 2006//
TI  - A Mathematical Model of the Risk of Nuclear Terrorism
JO  - Annals of the American Academy of Political and Social Science
A1  - Bunn, M
SP  - 103
EP  - 120
VL  - 607
IS  - 1
N2  - This article presents a mathematical model for measuring the global risk of nuclear theft and terrorism. One plausible set of parameter values used in a numerical example suggests a 29 percent probability of a nuclear terrorist attack in the next decade. The expected loss over that period would be $1.17 trillion (undiscounted), or more than $100 billion per year. Historical and other evidence is used to explore the likely values of several of the key parameters, and policy options for reducing the risk are briefly assessed. The uncertainties in estimating the risk of nuclear terrorism are very large, but even a risk dramatically smaller than that estimated in the numerical example used in this article would justify a broad range of actions to reduce the threat.<p />
LA  - 
SN  - 0002-7162
UR  - http://dx.doi.org/
ID  - ref1
ER  -