TY  - JOUR
PY  - 2019//
TI  - Deaths of despair and Brexit votes: cross-local authority statistical analysis in England and Wales
JO  - American journal of public health
A1  - Koltai, Jonathan
A1  - Varchetta, Francesco Maria
A1  - McKee, Martin
A1  - Stuckler, David
SP  - ePub
EP  - ePub
VL  - ePub
IS  - ePub
N2  - <i>Objectives.</i> To test the hypothesis that deaths of despair, a marker of social suffering, were associated with greater support for Brexit in the United Kingdom's 2016 European Union referendum.<i>Methods.</i> We used cross-local authority regression models of Brexit vote shares on changes in suicide and drug-related death rates before (2005-2007) and after the recession (2014-2016), adjusting for sociodemographic factors. The population comprised 345 local authorities in England and Wales.<i>Results.</i> Mortality rates were associated with voting patterns. An increase of 10 drug-related deaths per 100 000 was associated with a 15.25-percentage-point increase in Brexit votes (95% confidence interval [CI] = 10.27, 20.24), while an increase of 10 suicides per 100 000 was associated with a 9.97-percentage-point increase in vote shares for Brexit (95% CI = 6.25, 13.70). These results were substantially attenuated after we adjusted for education, and reduced to nonsignificance for drug mortality (b = 2.18; 95% CI = -0.21, 4.57) and suicide (b = 0.94; 95% CI = -0.32, 2.21) upon inclusion of other sociodemographic factors.<i>Conclusions.</i> Worsening mortality correlated with Brexit votes. These phenomena appear to share similar antecedents. A rise in such deaths may point to deeper social problems that could have political consequences. (<i>Am J Public Health</i>. Published online ahead of print December 19, 2019: e1-e6. doi:10.2105/AJPH.2019.305488).<p />  <p>Language: en</p>
LA  - en
SN  - 0090-0036
UR  - http://dx.doi.org/10.2105/AJPH.2019.305488
ID  - ref1
ER  -