TY  - JOUR
PY  - 2020//
TI  - Battle diffusion matters: examining the impact of microdynamics of fighting on conflict termination
JO  - Journal of conflict resolution
A1  - Ito, Gaku
A1  - Hinkkainen Elliott, Kaisa
SP  - 871
EP  - 902
VL  - 64
IS  - 5
N2  - How does diffusion of civil war battles influence conflict termination? Recent advances in civil war literature have found that battle dynamics shape conflict termination by affecting the intra-conflict bargaining between disputants. This article extends the theoretical perspective and argues that how battles diffuse matters in determining conflict termination. While battlefield dynamics should in principle reveal previously unavailable private information, the relevance of information-revealing effect depends on the diffusion patterns of battles. The persistent, and possibly battle-exacerbated, commitment problem can also alter the prospects of conflict termination. We test the argument by distinguishing two distinct diffusion patterns of battles: distant and proximate. The empirical results reveal that distant diffusion, but not proximate diffusion, of battles makes civil conflicts less likely to terminate. The analysis also demonstrates that incorporating diffusion dynamics significantly improves our ability to predict conflict termination.<p />  <p>Language: en</p>
LA  - en
SN  - 0022-0027
UR  - http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0022002719885428
ID  - ref1
ER  -