TY  - JOUR
PY  - 2022//
TI  - Fire forecasting model and automated calculation of fire risk for the transport system
JO  - Transportation research procedia
A1  - Avdeeva, Marina
A1  - Uzun, Oleg
A1  - Chumakov, Nikolay
SP  - 2959
EP  - 2966
VL  - 63
IS  - 
N2  - Until a certain time, the science of life safety in the arsenal did not have appropriate methods for calculating the probabilities of potential hazards. The improvement of the protection of people from fires began intensively with the development of electronic computing technology. Today, the concept of risk is firmly embedded in the security tools of complex systems (economic, social, technical). The principle of "acceptable risk" defines the red line of safety, and effective risk assessment methods determine the response range to improve the safety of critical facilities. In general, risk assessment allows not only to identify potential hazards, but also to identify infrastructure vulnerabilities and pay attention to those elements (passive or active) of the security system that were not previously taken into account for transport systems. To determine deviations from fire safety requirements and the implementation of certain fire-fighting measures, a fire risk calculation is used. Also, the calculation of the fire risk value allows you to determine the potential consequences of a fire and the amount of damage. The article discusses the legal aspects of the classification of emergencies for transport systems in the Russian Federation, special attention is paid to fires and their place in the classification system. Statistical data on emergency situations over a long period of time were analyzed and summarized, fire risks were calculated, a fire was simulated and an individual fire risk was calculated using the Phoenix+ software product, and its relationship with the normatively defined value of individual fire risk was established.<p />  <p>Language: en</p>
LA  - en
SN  - 2352-1465
UR  - http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.trpro.2022.06.345
ID  - ref1
ER  -