TY  - JOUR
PY  - 2021//
TI  - High-resolution fire danger forecast for Poland based on the Weather Research and Forecasting Model
JO  - International journal of wildland fire
A1  - Mandal, Alan
A1  - Nykiel, Grzegorz
A1  - Strzyzewski, Tomasz
A1  - Kochanski, Adam
A1  - Wrońska, Weronika
A1  - Gruszczynska, Marta
A1  - Figurski, Mariusz
A1  - Mandal, Alan
A1  - Nykiel, Grzegorz
A1  - Strzyzewski, Tomasz
A1  - Kochanski, Adam
A1  - Wrońska, Weronika
A1  - Gruszczynska, Marta
A1  - Figurski, Mariusz
SP  - 149
EP  - 162
VL  - 31
IS  - 2
N2  - Due to climate change and associated longer and more frequent droughts, the risk of forest fires increases. To address this, the Institute of Meteorology and Water Management implemented a system for forecasting fire weather in Poland. The Fire Weather Index (FWI) system, developed in Canada, has been adapted to work with meteorological fields derived from the high-resolution (2.5 km) Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. Forecasts are made with 24- and 48-h lead times. The purpose of this work is to present the validation of the implemented system. First, the results of the WRF model were validated using in situ observations from ~70 synoptic stations. Second, we used the correlation method and Eastaugh's percentile analysis to assess the quality of the FWI index. The data covered the 2019 fire season and were analysed for the whole forest area in Poland. Based on the presented results, it can be concluded that the FWI index (calculated based on the WRF model) has a very high predictive ability of fire risk. However, the results vary by region, distance from human habitats, and size of fire.<p />  <p>Language: en</p>
LA  - en
SN  - 1049-8001
UR  - http://dx.doi.org/10.1071/WF21106
ID  - ref1
ER  -