TY  - JOUR
PY  - 2022//
TI  - Future injury mortality burden attributable to compound hot extremes will significantly increase in China
JO  - Science of the total environment
A1  - Luo, Liying
A1  - Zeng, Fangfang
A1  - Bai, Guoxia
A1  - Gong, Weiwei
A1  - Ren, Zhoupeng
A1  - Hu, Jianxiong
A1  - He, Guanhao
A1  - Shi, Heng
A1  - Lin, Ziqiang
A1  - Liu, Tao
A1  - Yin, Peng
A1  - Qin, Mingfang
A1  - Hou, Zhulin
A1  - Meng, Ruilin
A1  - Zhou, Chunliang
A1  - Dong, Xiaomei
A1  - Pingcuo, Zhuoma
A1  - Xiao, Yize
A1  - Yu, Min
A1  - Huang, Biao
A1  - Xu, XiaoJun
A1  - Lin, Lifeng
A1  - Xiao, Jianpeng
A1  - Zhong, Jieming
A1  - Jin, Donghui
A1  - Li, Yajie
A1  - Gama, Cangjue
A1  - Xiong, Peng
A1  - Xu, Yiqing
A1  - Lv, Lingshuang
A1  - Zeng, Weilin
A1  - Li, Xing
A1  - Zhou, Maigeng
A1  - Huang, Cunrui
A1  - Ma, Wenjun
SP  - ePub
EP  - ePub
VL  - ePub
IS  - ePub
N2  - BACKGROUND: As climate change, compound hot extremes (CHEs), daytime and nighttime persistent hot extremes, are projected to become much more frequent and intense, which may pose a serious threat to human health. However, evidence on the impact of CHEs on injury is rare. <br><br>METHODS: We collected injury death data and daily meteorological data from six Chinese provinces during 2013-2018. A time-stratified case-crossover design with two-stage analytic approach was applied to assess the associations of CHEs with injury mortality by intention, mechanism, age and gender. Using the projected daily temperatures of five General Circulation Models (GCMs), we projected the frequency of CHEs and CHEs-attributable mortality burden of injury under three Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios. <br><br>RESULTS: CHEs were significantly associated with increased injury mortality risk (RR = 1.14, 95%CI: 1.09-1.19), with strong effects on unintentional injuries (RR = 1.16, 95%CI:1.11,1.22) and intentional injuries (RR = 1.11, 95%CI:0.99,1.25). Female (RR = 1.21,95%CI: 1.13-1.29) and the elderly (RR = 1.30, 95%CI: 1.22-1.39) were more susceptible to CHEs. Both the frequency and injury mortality burden of CHEs showed a steep rising trend under RCP8.5 scenario, with a 7.37-fold and 8.22-fold increase respectively, by the end of the century, especially in southern, eastern, central and northwestern China. <br><br>CONCLUSION: CHEs were associated with increased injury mortality risk, and the CHEs-attributable injury mortality burden was projected to aggravate substantially in the future as global warming. It is urgent to develop targeted adaptation policies to alleviate the health burden of CHEs.<p />  <p>Language: en</p>
LA  - en
SN  - 0048-9697
UR  - http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.157019
ID  - ref1
ER  -