TY  - JOUR
PY  - 2022//
TI  - Long term recidivism rates among individuals at high risk to sexually reoffend
JO  - Sexual abuse: a journal of research and treatment
A1  - Hanson, R. Karl
A1  - Lee, Seung C.
A1  - Thornton, David
SP  - ePub
EP  - ePub
VL  - ePub
IS  - ePub
N2  - Preventive detention provisions in the US and Canada assume we can identify, in advance, individuals at high risk for sexual recidivism. To test this assumption, 377 adult males with a history of sexual offending were followed for 20 years using Canadian national criminal history records and Internet searches. Using previously collected information, a high risk/high need (HRHN) subgroup was identified based on an unusually high levels of criminogenic needs (n = 190, average age of 38 years; 83% White, 13% Indigenous, 4% other). A well above average subgroup of 99 individuals was then identified based on high Static-99R (6+) and Static-2002R (7+) scores. In the HRHN group, 40% reoffended sexually. STATIC HRHN norms overestimated sexual recidivism at 5 years (Static-99R, E/O = 1.44; Static-2002R, E/O = 1.72) but were well calibrated for longer follow-up periods (20 years: Static-99R, E/0 = 1.00; Static-2002R, E/O = 1.16). The overall sexual recidivism rate for the well above average subgroup was 52.1% after 20 years, and 74.3% for any violent recidivism. The highest risk individuals (top 1%) had rates in the 60%-70% range. We conclude that some individuals present a high risk for sexual recidivism, and can be identified using currently available methods.<p />  <p>Language: en</p>
LA  - en
SN  - 1079-0632
UR  - http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/10790632221139166
ID  - ref1
ER  -