TY  - JOUR
PY  - 2023//
TI  - Modeling non-linear changes in an urban setting: from pro-environmental affordances to responses in behavior, emissions and air quality
JO  - Ambio
A1  - Hulkkonen, Mira
A1  - Kaaronen, Roope O.
A1  - Kokkola, Harri
A1  - Mielonen, Tero
A1  - Clusius, Petri
A1  - Xavier, Carlton
A1  - Hellén, Heidi
A1  - Niemi, Jarkko V.
A1  - Malila, Jussi
SP  - ePub
EP  - ePub
VL  - ePub
IS  - ePub
N2  - Interactions in urban environment were investigated using a multidisciplinary model combination, with focus on traffic, emissions and atmospheric particles. An agent-based model was applied to simulate the evolution of unsustainable human behavior (usage of combustion-based personal vehicles) as a function of pro-environmental affordances (opportunities for sustainable choices). Scenarios regarding changes in multi-pollutant emissions were derived, and the non-linear implications to atmospheric particles were simulated with a box model. Based on the results for a Nordic city, increasing pro-environmental affordances by 10%, 50% or 100% leads to emission reductions of 15%, 30% and 40% within 2 years. To reduce ambient particle mass, emissions from traffic should decrease by > 15%, while the lung deposited surface area decreases in all scenarios ([Formula: see text], [Formula: see text] and [Formula: see text], correspondingly). The presented case is representative of one season, but the approach is generic and applicable to simulating a full year, given meteorological and pollution data that reflects seasonal variation. This work emphasizes the necessity to consider feedback mechanisms and non-linearities in both human behavior and atmospheric processes, when predicting the outcomes of changes in an urban system.<p />  <p>Language: en</p>
LA  - en
SN  - 0044-7447
UR  - http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s13280-022-01827-8
ID  - ref1
ER  -