TY  - JOUR
PY  - 1953//
TI  - The Use and Validity of a Prediction Instrument, I. A Reformulation of the Use of a Prediction Instrument
JO  - American journal of sociology
A1  - Goodman, L. A.
SP  - 503
EP  - 510
VL  - 58
IS  - 5
N2  - On the basis of the analysis of experience tables alone, the use of a prediction instrument as a decision-making procedure which replaces the procedure in use is found to be unjustified. The experience tables are determined in part by the actual decision-making procedure in use. Hence any analysis of a prediction instrument by experience tables alone must be made relative to the actual decision-making procedure. This calls for reformulating the use of prediction. The proposed reformulation involves treating prediction as a "red flag" in the final stage of the decision-making process. It also introduces explicitly the determination of social costs in the use of prediction.<p />
LA  - 
SN  - 0002-9602
UR  - http://dx.doi.org/10.1086/221203
ID  - ref1
ER  -