TY - JOUR PY - 2015// TI - Post-hoc validation of the Conley Scale in predicting the risk of falling with older in-hospital medical patients: findings from a multicentre longitudinal study JO - Aging clinical and experimental research A1 - Palese, Alvisa A1 - Gonella, Silvia A1 - Lant, Anna A1 - Guarnier, Annamaria A1 - Barelli, Paolo A1 - Zambiasi, Paola A1 - Allegrini, Elisabetta A1 - Bazoli, Letizia A1 - Casson, Paola A1 - Marin, Meri A1 - Padovan, Marisa A1 - Picogna, Michele A1 - Taddia, Patrizia A1 - Salmaso, Daniele A1 - Chiari, Paolo A1 - Frison, Tiziana A1 - Marognolli, Oliva A1 - Canzan, Federica A1 - Ambrosi, Elisa A1 - Saiani, Luisa SP - 139 EP - 146 VL - 28 IS - 1 N2 - BACKGROUND: The Conley Scale is one of the most widespread fall-risk screening tools in medical unit settings, despite the lack of data regarding its validity in patients currently admitted to these units. AIMS: Establishing the validity of the Conley Scale in identifying patients at risk of falling in an acute medical setting.

METHODS: A 6-months longitudinal study in 12 acute medical units from September 2012 to March 2013, a total of 1464 patients with ≥65 years of age were consecutively enrolled and evaluated with the Conley Scale within 24 h of admission. A construct validity, internal consistency, and a priori and a posteriori predictive validity study was performed.

RESULTS: The explorative factor analysis showed a two-factor structure explaining a total variance of 48.3 %: previous history (30.41 %), and physical and cognitive impairment (17.9 %). The scale reported a poor internal consistency (Cronbach's α = 0.465) and the capability to correctly identify 18/649 patients as being at risk of falling, whereas the negative predictive value was 98.5 %. The sensitivity and specificity values were 60.0 and 55.9 %, respectively. No difference emerged between patients scored as at risk and those scored as not at risk in the time elapsed from admission to the first fall (HR = 0.600, 95 % CI 0.289-2.247 p = .166).

DISCUSSION: The Conley Scale is not able to predict falls in elderly acute medical patients, and has reported poor internal consistency and accuracy.

CONCLUSIONS: More studies are needed to develop appropriate tools to predict the risk of falling in elderly individuals admitted to an acute medical setting.

Language: en

LA - en SN - 1594-0667 UR - http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s40520-015-0378-4 ID - ref1 ER -