Citation

O'Kane RHT. J. Peace Res. 1993; 30(3): 251-270.

Copyright

(Copyright © 1993, SAGE Publishing)

DOI

10.1177/0022343393030003002

PMID

unavailable

Abstract

Current explanations of African coups d'etat concentrate on national political factors and generate predictive models for both successful and unsuccessful coups. The explanation offered here challenges these approaches through the application of a probabilistic theory and the model deduced from it which have already demonstrated their value for coups in general. This theory holds the underlying causes of successful coups to be economic rather than political, and views coups as the consequence of the lack of political control which results from the domestic uncertainties produced by world market trade. Specifically, it is argued that the underlying causes of coups are specialization in and dependency on primary goods for export, exacerbated by poverty. Such preconditions render even the most responsible governments open to accusations of incompetence and corruption, so inviting coups d'etat. The chance of a successful coup actually occurring has, though, also to take into account the existence of factors which hinder coups. Two general obstacles are suggested: the absence of a previous coup and the continuing or historic presence of foreign troops since independence. A testable hypothesis is deduced from this theory which is examined through the application of discriminant analysis to data for three sets of African countries. The models produced are shown to support the theory and predictions for future coups and policy implications are considered. In sum, by no means all African countries are predicted to have coups d'etat and in a substantial proportion of cases escape from future coups can be avoided only through international trade policies.