Citation

Nincic M. J. Peace Res. 1985; 22(4): 345-357.

Copyright

(Copyright © 1985, SAGE Publishing)

DOI

10.1177/002234338502200406

PMID

unavailable

Abstract

This article seeeks to further our understanding of the forces that shape US-Soviet relations. The author examines the notion that the ups and downs in these relations are caused by shifts in the external interests of the two super powers. He concludes that external circumstances of this nature may establish a ceiling beyond which relations cannot improve, but that their fluctuating nature must largely be accounted for by changing domestic political conditions, primarily within the United States. Shifts in US public moods toward the Soviet Union is one particu larly significant internal condition, and the determinants of these moods are examined. As it does not appear that public perceptions of the USSR can be solely accounted for by Soviet behavior, the author examines the hypothesis that public feelings toward Russia are partly shaped by national frustrations within the United States. Specifically, it is hypothesized that, as the economic conditions of the American public deteriorate, this public will feel more hostile toward Moscow, and vice versa. There are two reasons why this might be so. To begin with, externally directed hostility might fulfil a cathartic function for a public which is dissatisfied with its current circumstances. Secondly, and less directly, a government might seek to deflect attention from unsolved domestic problems by exciting animosity toward external rivals. The hypothesis is subjected to statistical testing and appears, on the basis of the evidence, to be confirmed. The author suggests some implications for our study of foreign policy.