Citation

Avenhaus R, Fichtner J, Brams SJ, Kilgour DM. J. Peace Res. 1989; 26(1): 91-99.

Copyright

(Copyright © 1989, SAGE Publishing)

DOI

10.1177/0022343389026001009

PMID

unavailable

Abstract

A theoretical analysis of the probability of nuclear war is developed that assumes a starting probability and an annual reduction factor. Whatever the starting probability is, a constant reduction factor leads to an eventual probability that is less than 1, whereas the eventual probability goes to 1 if there is no reduction or if the reduction proportion decreases at a constant rate. Numerical calculations and graphical results illustrate trade-offs between the starting probabilities and the reduction factors, demonstrating especially the significance of the latter. In addition, upper and lower limits for, and approximations of, the eventual probabilities - along with measures of the rate of convergence - are derived. The applicability of the analysis to lowering the probability of nuclear war is discussed, with particular attention paid to real-life factors that seem to affect this probability.