Citation

McCallum E, Heming J. Philos. Transact. A Math. Phys. Eng. Sci. 2006; 364(1845): 2099-2115.

Affiliation

Met Office, Exeter, Devon, UK. ewen.mccallum@metoffice.gov.uk

Copyright

(Copyright © 2006, Royal Society Publishing)

DOI

10.1098/rsta.2006.1815

PMID

16844650

Abstract

On 29 August 2005, Hurricane Katrina hit the Gulf Coast of the USA to become one of the worst natural disasters in the country's history. The forecasts and official warnings of the event issued by the US National Hurricane Center up to 60 h ahead were excellent and largely based on an 'ensemble' of model and statistical guidance. The Met Office Global Model is highlighted as one of the best performers for Hurricane Katrina. The active 2005 Atlantic hurricane season has fuelled the debate on the impact of climate change on tropical cyclones. Some recent publications have suggested that this impact is already apparent, while others are more cautious. Inconsistencies remain among many of the theoretical, modelling and observational studies. Despite the excellent warnings, there was a tragic loss of life as a result of Hurricane Katrina which has led to political questions concerning complex socio-economic issues, the state of flood defences and how to coordinate the reaction to and mitigate the impact of such monumental natural hazards.

Language: en