Citation

Chen JS, March LM, Schwarz J, Zochling J, Makaroff J, Sitoh YY, Lau TC, Lord SR, Cameron ID, Cumming RG, Sambrook PN. J. Clin. Epidemiol. 2005; 58(5): 503-508.

Affiliation

Joint Research, Department of Medicine, Level 4, Block 4, Royal North Shore Hospital, University of Sydney, St Leonards, NSW 2065, Australia. jschen@med.usyd.edu.au

Copyright

(Copyright © 2005, Elsevier Publishing)

DOI

10.1016/j.jclinepi.2004.08.018

PMID

15845337

Abstract

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE: To evaluate whether individual falls risk could be predicted in a frail elderly population. STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING: We developed and tested an assessment tool and falls risk score for predicting falls based on a multivariate regression model in a prospective cohort study of intermediate care residents. RESULTS: During the follow-up period, 1,736 falls by 1,107 subjects were recorded with an average of 170 falls per 100 person-years. Fifty percent of the study population had at least one fall within a year. Significant independent risk factors were poor balance, cognitive impairment, incontinence, higher illness severity rating, and older age. Twenty-two percent of participants with a falls risk score > or =7 accounted for 42% of the total falls, with a falls rate of 317 per 100 person-years. This rate was a sixfold increase from the falls rate of 52 per 100 person-years observed in participants with a score < 3. A high score (> or =7) indicated almost a 2 in 3 chance of falling, while a low score (<3) indicated approximately a 1 in 7 chance of falling within 6 months. CONCLUSION: The assessment tool and falls risk score could identify individuals in this frail elderly population at high risk of falls.