Citation

Oster C, Zorn CK. J. Transp. Res. Forum 1989; 29(2): 246-253.

Copyright

(Copyright © 1989, Transportation Research Forum)

DOI

unavailable

PMID

unavailable

Abstract

Aircraft accident and passenger fatality rates have generally improved throughout the post-deregulation period, but there is still concern that safety has recently deteriorated. Accident and fatality data are poorly suited for quick detection of changes in the underlying safety of the aviation system. Many have speculated that changes in the frequency of safety-related problems (incidents) may provide more sensitive measures of changing risk of aviation accidents. The usefulness of incident data hinges first on a correlation existing between incidents and accidents and, second, on the premise that careful tracking of changes in incidents may point to problems before they become apparent in accident data. This paper investigates the potential use of data on air traffic control operational errors, pilot deviations, and near midair collisions to provide insight into the risk of midair collision.