Citation

Beard AN. Fire Safety J. 1981; 4(3): 169-184.

Copyright

(Copyright © 1981, Elsevier Publishing)

DOI

unavailable

PMID

unavailable

Abstract

A stochastic model for the number of deaths resulting from a fire is put forward. A general structure is described and the particular case of flaming ignition an a bed in a hospital ward is considered. In the calculation carried out the crucial importance of the features of the early stages of development becomes apparent. The work suggests that there is a very large (greater than 80%) likelihood of having multiple fatalities if the fire goes above 50 kW. It should be stressed that the ideas contained here represent just a tentative study; many of the assumptions made are not firmly based. More generally, the conceptual and numerical limitations of any model must be clearly realized when considering what emerges. Models such as the one described here must only be used within a much more all-embracing framework; they should not be used to replace such a framework itself. These matters are raised and the qualitative complexity of the particular case is discussed to a small extent.