Citation

Beard AN. Fire Safety J. 1985; 8(3): 201-226.

Copyright

(Copyright © 1985, Elsevier Publishing)

DOI

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PMID

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Abstract

In an earlier work a stochastic model for the number of deaths resulting from a fire was put forward. A general structure was described and the particular case of flaming ignition on a bed in a hospital ward was considered. It was stressed that the ideas were put forward in a tentative sense and that many of the assumptions made were not firmly based. In the present work sensitivity studies have been done. Alterations in assumptions have been made and the effects on output determined; most of the changes considered have been numerical rather than conceptual. The effects of altering assumptions which may be regarded as conceptual should be considered further at a future date. Important effects on output are found for some regions of the parameters concerned; it is necessary to use the model with caution and circumspection.

In addition to the main body of the work, calculations have been carried out assuming formation of a homogeneous layer rather than uniform mixing of smoke and toxic gases throughout the ward. Also, calculations have been conducted using the data resulting from a study carried out for the fires in the area of an English Regional Health Authority. The results of the latter two sets of calculations have been included in appendices.