Citation

Rasbash DJ. Fire Safety J. 1985; 8(2): 141-158.

Copyright

(Copyright © 1985, Elsevier Publishing)

DOI

unavailable

PMID

unavailable

Abstract

Quantitative approaches to estimating individual and societal risk in the nuclear industry, the chemical and fuel process industries and in building design are considered. Particular attention is paid to what have been proposed as target levels for acceptability of risk in these fields. Available data on multiple fatality fire occurrence in the United Kingdom, the United States and worldwide are examined. On the basis of this data a total societal fire risk for the U.K. is proposed. This, together with information on the number of premises at risk, allows target probabilities to be defined for premises of different size. These range from about 10-6 per annum, for premises where five or more people may be killed in a fire, to 10-7 to 10-8 per annum for premises where one hundred or more may be killed. These might be used with models of risk analysis aimed at estimating actual probabilities. These target values are compared with those used in other areas. Consideration is also given to the evaluation of the weightings used in points schemes and the development of targets of acceptability where such methods are employed.