Citation

Wollert R. J. Threat Assess. 2003; 2(4): 65-78.

Copyright

(Copyright © 2003, Informa - Taylor and Francis Group)

DOI

10.1300/J177v02n04_05

PMID

unavailable

Abstract

Wollert's (2002) paper on actuarial tests that are used for the prediction of sexual recidivism (ATSRs) showed that the recidivism rates for the score groups in the MnSOST-R developmental sample were inflated, and that they "shrank" by as much as 44 percentage points on cross-validation. Doren and Dow (2002) present an analysis of Wollert's (2002) research and an alternative study that they claim demonstrated a lack of shrinkage. This commentary presents a critique of Doren and Dow's response. Various considerations indicate that the original cross-validation was appropriate. Doren and Dow's alternative was also found to be unacceptably flawed. Additional analyses cast doubt on the MnSOST-R's validity coefficients and its relevance for identifying likely recidivists, and a consensus was apparent that the MnSOST-R experience table for the developmental sample should not be used in civil commitment hearings. Finally, a number of guidelines for the development of ATSRs were reviewed. In particular, it was noted that test developers could make a valuable contribution to the field by sharing data about their tests with other professionals when asked to do so.