Citation

Hagiwara T, Imoto T, Kagaya S, Takemoto A, Hirasawa M. J. East Asia Soc. Transp. Stud. 2010; 8: 1974-1985.

Copyright

(Copyright © 2010, Eastern Asia Society for Transportation Studies)

DOI

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PMID

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Abstract

Considering the effects of cohort on aspects of the younger generation will help in understanding the latest decline of the number of fatal accidents in Japan. This study investigated the effects of changes in patterns of age, period, and cohort on the number of fatal and injured accidents quantitatively through the use of a wide-ranging set of statistical techniques. The authors used the number of driving license holders as an exposure value. As a result, cohorts had a strong effect on changes in the number of fatal accidents. However, cohort had little effect on changes in the number of injured accidents. The cohorts born in 1967-71 and 1972-76 had a large increasing effect on the number of fatal accidents, and the latest cohort born in 1982-86 has a large decreasing effect. It should be noted that the number of driving mileage per age group is more desirable as an exposure value.