Citation

Zhan W, Lü Q, Shang YQ. Jilin Daxue Xuebao 2014; 44(1): 62-67.

Copyright

(Copyright © 2014, Jilin University)

DOI

10.13229/j.cnki.jdxbgxb201401011

PMID

unavailable

Abstract

Based on the original data of traffic accidents in a typical highway tunnel group region, a grey forecasting model, which is modified by residual error model, is proposed to analyze the development trend of traffic accidents in highway tunnel group region. The forecasting accuracy is improved by introducing Markov optimization. Compared with commonly used forecasting method, the proposed method in this paper has a better forecasting accuracy and practicality in a period. It can be used for the forecasting analysis of traffic accidents and for security early warning in highway tunnel group region.

Language: zh