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Abstract
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Research Summary:
Few studies have examined time-based variations in recidivism rates despite the substantial variation that seems to be characteristic of some states. A recent publication by the Tennessee Department of Correction indicates that reincarceration rates increased significantly for parole release cohorts from 1993 to 1997. I reexamine the Tennessee data with additional years and confirm the sharp increase in reincarceration rates, although subsequent years show a decline back to 1993 levels.
FINDINGS indicate that time-based variation in the return rate is not attributable to differences in the populations being released, nor does it seem to be associated with increases in criminal behavior as measured by new arrests or new criminal convictions.
RESULTS suggest that violations of the technical conditions of parole rather than increased criminal behavior largely account for the trend, that parole release was used as a "back-door" means of controlling and stabilizing rapidly growing prison populations, and that the use of parole in this manner was associated with increased rates of return to prison. Policy Implications:
This article highlights issues with parole technical violators, release decisions, and revocation criteria, as well as their relationships with correctional systems. Large variations in parole grant rates over the study period suggest a lack of consistently applied objective risk criteria for parole release and may validate some criticisms of arbitrariness in parole release decisions. Increased grant rates do not seem to be associated with increased rates of criminal behavior, which suggests that the more conservative grant rates in recent years could be raised without increased risk to public safety. There also seem to be significant differences in violation rates by region that may indicate inconsistencies in the application of violation criteria.
Language: en |