Citation

Kotani M, Iizuka A, Kawai K. J. Jpn. Soc. Civil Eng. Ser. F6 Saf. Probl. 2015; 71(1): 46-57.

Copyright

(Copyright © 2015, Japan Society of Civil Engineers)

DOI

10.2208/jscejsp.71.46

PMID

unavailable

Abstract

Decision makers must decide the disaster correspondence by using uncertain information. When the decision maker makes this decision, they have the dilemma to prioritize which of "the rapidity of correspondence" and "the accuracy of information". The result for disaster varies according to the difference in priority. This study approximate the change of cumulative number of death with time lapse by using the Weibull distribution and proposed the Bayesian estimation model to predict the total number of deaths by utilizing the change of cumulative number of deaths. By considering the estimated total number of deaths with past earthquakes cases, it was possible to estimate the time period to make the disaster response decision. Therefore, this would be a judgment material to reduce the dilemma of decision makers.

Language: ja