Citation

Davidsen J, Baiesi M. Phys. Rev. E 2016; 94(2-1): e022314.

Affiliation

INFN - Sezione di Padova, Via Marzolo 8, I-35131 Padova, Italy.

Copyright

(Copyright © 2016, American Physical Society)

DOI

10.1103/PhysRevE.94.022314

PMID

27627324

Abstract

In many important systems exhibiting crackling noise-an intermittent avalanchelike relaxation response with power-law and, thus, self-similar distributed event sizes-the "laws" for the rate of activity after large events are not consistent with the overall self-similar behavior expected on theoretical grounds. This is particularly true for the case of seismicity, and a satisfying solution to this paradox has remained outstanding. Here, we propose a generalized description of the aftershock rates which is both self-similar and consistent with all other known self-similar features. Comparing our theoretical predictions with high-resolution earthquake data from Southern California we find excellent agreement, providing particularly clear evidence for a unified description of aftershocks and foreshocks. This may offer an improved framework for time-dependent seismic hazard assessment and earthquake forecasting.

Language: en