SAFETYLIT WEEKLY UPDATE

We compile citations and summaries of about 400 new articles every week.
RSS Feed

HELP: Tutorials | FAQ
CONTACT US: Contact info

Search Results

Journal Article

Citation

Katz CM, Hedberg EC, Amaya LE. Bull. World Health Organ. 2016; 94(9): 660-666A.

Affiliation

Institute of Science, Technology and Innovation, Universidad Francisco Gavidia, San Salvador, El Salvador .

Copyright

(Copyright © 2016, World Health Organization)

DOI

10.2471/BLT.15.166314

PMID

27708471

Abstract

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the effects on homicide rates of the gang truce that was brokered in El Salvador in 2012.

METHODS: Mathematical models based on municipal-level census, crime and gang-intelligence data were used to estimate the effect of the truce on homicide rates. One model estimated the overall effect after accounting for the linear trend and seasonality in the homicide rate. In a moderated-effect model, we investigated the relationship between the truce effect and the numbers of MS13 (Mara Salvatrucha 13) and Eighteenth-Street gang members imprisoned per 100 000 population. We then ran each of these two models with additional control variables. We compared values before the truce - 1 January 2010 to 29 February 2012 - with those after the truce - 1 March 2012 to 31 December 2013.

FINDINGS: The overall-effect models with and without additional control variables indicated a homicide rate after the truce that was significantly lower than the value before the truce, giving rate ratios of 0.55 (95% confidence interval, CI: 0.49-0.63) and 0.61 (95% CI: 0.54-0.69), respectively. For any given municipality, the effectiveness of the truce appeared to increase as the number of MS13 gang members imprisoned per 100 000 population increased. We did not observe the same significant relationship for imprisoned Eighteenth-Street gang members.

CONCLUSION: In the 22 months following the establishment of a national gang truce, the homicide rate was about 40% lower than in the preceding 26 months. The truce's impact appeared particularly strong in municipalities with relatively high numbers of imprisoned MS13 gang members per 100 000 population.


Language: en

NEW SEARCH


All SafetyLit records are available for automatic download to Zotero & Mendeley
Print