Citation

Wernstedt K, Roberts PS, Arvai J, Redmond K. Disasters 2019; 43(1): 88-109.

Affiliation

Who passed away on 4 November 2016, was a Research Professor and Regional Climatologist for the western US, Desert Research Institute, United States.

Copyright

(Copyright © 2019, John Wiley and Sons)

DOI

10.1111/disa.12293

PMID

29893434

Abstract

Emergency managers who work on floods and other weather-related hazards constitute critical frontline responders to disasters. Yet, while these professionals operate in a realm rife with uncertainty related to forecasts and other unknowns, the influence of uncertainty on their decision-making is poorly understood. Consequently, a national-level survey of county emergency managers in the United States was administered to examine how they interpret forecast information, using hypothetical climate, flood, and weather scenarios to simulate their responses to uncertain information. The study revealed that even emergency managers with substantial experience take decision shortcuts and make biased choices, just as do members of the general population. Their choices vary depending on such features as the format in which probabilistic forecasts are presented and whether outcomes are represented as gains or losses. In sum, forecast producers who consider these decision processes when developing and communicating forecasts could help to improve flood preparation and potentially reduce disaster losses.

© 2018 The Author(s). Disasters © Overseas Development Institute, 2018.

Language: en

Keywords

cognitive; decision-making; emergency management; risk; uncertainty