Citation

Honda K, Tachibana S, Iizuka A. J. Jpn. Soc. Civil Eng. Ser. F6 Saf. Probl. 2019; 75(1): 31-39.

Copyright

(Copyright © 2019, Japan Society of Civil Engineers)

DOI

10.2208/jscejsp.75.31

PMID

unavailable

Abstract

In the emergency response at the event of disaster, decision makers have to decide the actions immediately. As a means of improving the quickness of the emergency response, there is a concept that it is used for decision making that real time estimate of the eventual death toll. This study considers improving the method that estimate the eventual damage scale at the initial stage of the disaster by examining the function which reproduce the change with time of the number of deaths. In cases that updated many information in the initial stage of a disaster, it is possible to improve the damage prediction accuracy by adopting the hyperbolic tangent function as the function of reproducing the change with time of the number of deaths. In addition, this study considers how to use the estimate model to be able to estimate the damage scale at the initial stage of the disaster as early as possible. This estimate model can predict damage in a certain accuracy at the initial stage of a disaster by updating information more frequently.

Language: ja

Keywords

Bayesian inference; decision-making; disaster information; hyperbolic function; update of information