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Abstract
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BACKGROUND: Background: National emergencies have increased gun preparation (i.e., purchasing new guns or removing guns from storage) in the past, and these gun actions have, in turn, effected increases in firearm injuries and death.
OBJECTIVE: Objective: We assess the extent to which interest in preparing guns has increased amid the COVID-19 Pandemic using data from Google searches related to purchasing and cleaning guns.
METHODS: Methods: We fit an Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model over Google search data from January 2004 up until the week that President Trump declared COVID-19 an emergency. We use this model to forecast Google search volumes, creating a counterfactual of the number of gun preparation searches we would expect if not for COVID-19, and report observed deviations from this counterfactual.
RESULTS: Results: Google searches related to preparing guns have surged to unprecedented levels, approximately 40% higher than previously reported spikes following the Sandy Hook, CT and Parkland, FL shootings and 158% (95%CI 73-270) greater than would be expected if not for COVID-19. In absolute terms, there were approximately 2.1 million searches related to gun preparation over just 34 days. States severely affected by COVID-19 appear to have among the greatest increases in searches.
CONCLUSIONS: Conclusions: Our results corroborate media reports that gun purchases are increasing amid the Pandemic and provide more precise geographic and temporal trends. Policy makers should invest in disseminating evidence-based educational tools about gun risks and safety procedures to avert a collateral public health crisis.
CLINICALTRIAL:
Language: en |