Citation

Hegre H, Bell C, Colaresi M, Croicu M, Hoyles F, Jansen R, Leis MR, Lindqvist-McGowan A, Randahl D, Rød EG, Vesco P. J. Peace Res. 2021; 58(3): 599-611.

Copyright

(Copyright © 2021, SAGE Publishing)

DOI

10.1177/0022343320962157

PMID

unavailable

Abstract

This article presents an update to the ViEWS political Violence Early-Warning System. This update introduces (1) a new infrastructure for training, evaluating, and weighting models that allows us to more optimally combine constituent models into ensembles, and (2) a number of new forecasting models that contribute to improve overall performance, in particular with respect to effectively classifying high- and low-risk cases. Our improved evaluation procedures allow us to develop models that specialize in either the immediate or the more distant future. We also present a formal, 'retrospective' evaluation of how well ViEWS has done since we started publishing our forecasts from July 2018 up to December 2019. Our metrics show that ViEWS is performing well when compared to previous out-of-sample forecasts for the 2015-17 period. Finally, we present our new forecasts for the January 2020-December 2022 period. We continue to predict a near-constant situation of conflict in Nigeria, Somalia, and DRC, but see some signs of decreased risk in Cameroon and Mozambique.

Language: en

Keywords

Africa; armed conflict; ensemble modeling; forecasting; model criticism