Citation

Hongfu MI, Xiaomei Z, Wenjing Y, Wenhe W, Yaling LIU, Yifei J. China Saf. Sci. J. 2021; 31(1): 165-172.

Copyright

(Copyright © 2021, China Occupational Safety and Health Association, Publisher Gai Xue bao)

DOI

unavailable

PMID

unavailable

Abstract

In order to improve evaluation accuracy of fire risk in cable cabin, a BN-based model for fire probability prediction and analysis was proposed. Firstly, BTA method was used to analyze causes of fire in cable cabin, and potential fire accident scene was established. Then, with influence of uncertain factors in accident scene taken into consideration, BN was applied to fire probability prediction and analysis, and the model was optimized based on actual development of cabin fire. Finally, with a utility tunnel as an example, the model's logic was verified on the ground of literature and statistical data. The results show that this model and method can predict and analyze occurrence and development probability of fire in cable cabin, and explore cause chain of these accidents, which provides a reference for fire risk analysis and accident prevention and control in utility tunnel.

Key words: utility tunnel, cable cabin, fire probability, bayesian networks (BN), bow-tie analysis (BTA), maximum cause chain

http://www.cssjj.com.cn/EN/Y2021/V31/I1/165

Language: en