Citation

Geng B, Wang J, Zhang X. J. Wuhan Univ. Technol. Transp. Sci. Eng. 2007; 31(1): 107-110.

Affiliation

Bridge Engineering Department, Tongji University, Shanghai 200092, China

Copyright

(Copyright © 2007, Wuhan University of Technology)

DOI

unavailable

PMID

unavailable

Abstract

With increasing age, the bridge technical condition prediction is becoming essential for bridge management authority to enable bridge to be maintained at minimum overall cost. In this paper, the application of GM(1,1)-Markov model in individual bridge prediction is put forward. The GM(1,1)-Markov model is a model combining Markov model with grey model(1,1). When predicting, GM(1, 1) represents the total deterioration tendency of bridge, on base of which Markov model will take into account other uncertain factors leading to bridge condition improvement such as maintenance. This model to some extent settled the limitation of conventional regression model only for total tendency and probabilistic model merely used in bridge stock. In the end of this paper the model is applied in various bridge condition predicting, which gets good results.