Citation

Lin Z, Sun X, Ji Y. Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2022; 19(4): e2077.

Copyright

(Copyright © 2022, MDPI: Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute)

DOI

10.3390/ijerph19042077

PMID

35206264

Abstract

In recent years, machine learning models facilitated notable performance improvement in landslide displacement prediction. However, most existing prediction models which ignore landslide data at each time can provide a different value and meaning. To analyze and predict landslide displacement better, we propose a dynamic landslide displacement prediction model based on time series analysis and a double-bidirectional long short term memory (Double-BiLSTM) model. First, the cumulative landslide displacement is decomposed into trend and periodic displacement components according to time series analysis via the exponentially weighted moving average (EWMA) method. We consider that trend displacement is mainly influenced by landslide factors, and we apply a BiLSTM model to predict landslide trend displacement. This paper analyzes the internal relationship between rainfall, reservoir level and landslide periodic displacement. We adopt the maximum information coefficient (MIC) method to calculate the correlation between influencing factors and periodic displacement. We employ the BiLSTM model for periodic displacement prediction. Finally, the model is validated against data pertaining to the Baishuihe landslide in the Three Gorges, China. The experimental results and evaluation indicators demonstrate that this method achieves a better prediction performance than the classical prediction methods, and landslide displacement can be effectively predicted.

Language: en

Keywords

bidirectional long short term memory; landslide displacement prediction; maximum information coefficient; time series analysis