Citation

Chen S, Ge X, Zhao X, Lu J, Xing Y. China Saf. Sci. J. 2022; 32(2): 176-183.

Vernacular Title

山区二级公路运营期常态交通风险评价

Copyright

(Copyright © 2022, China Occupational Safety and Health Association, Publisher Gai Xue bao)

DOI

10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2022.02.024

PMID

unavailable

Abstract

In order to objectively and accurately evaluate normal traffic risks of second-class highways in mountainous areas, the risk resources were divided into two types, namely dynamic risk and static risk sources. Firstly, to assess static risks, an accident consequence model was established by comprehensive evaluation method based on whitening weight function, while an accident probability model was developed based on historical accident data. Then, for dynamic risk assessment, an accident consequence model was built by combining whitening weight function and analytic hierarchy process (AHP), and an accident probability model was built by using ordered Logit model. Finally, the normal traffic risk of second-class highways in mountainous areas was evaluated by integrating dynamic risk and static risk. The results show that the assessment model can evaluate normal traffic risks of these highways during operation period by combining dynamic and static data such as road alignment, traffic environment and natural environment. Based on this, highly risk sections can be identified, and thus responding countermeasures can be put in place to improve traffic safety level.

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为客观准确地评价山区二级公路常态交通风险，将风险源分为动态风险源和静态风险源。首先，基于白化权函数的综合评价法建立事故后果模型，基于历史事故数据建立事故概率模型，以评价静态风险；其次，结合白化权函数和层次分析法（AHP）建立事故后果模型，采用有序Logit模型建立事故概率模型，以评价动态风险；最后综合动静态风险结果评价山区二级公路常态交通风险。结果表明：该模型能够融合道路线形、交通环境、自然环境等动静态数据评价山区二级公路运营期常态交通风险，识别出风险较高的路段，从而提出有针对性的风险应对措施，提高山区二级公路的交通安全水平。

Language: en