Citation

Dave D, McNichols D, Sabia JJ. J. Popul. Econ. 2022; 35(4): 1-40.

Copyright

(Copyright © 2022, Springer International)

DOI

10.1007/s00148-022-00914-0

PMID

35855728

PMCID

PMC9281268

Abstract

This study is the first to explore the impact of the January 6, 2021 Capitol riot on risk avoidance behavior and the spread of COVID-19. First, using anonymized smartphone data from SafeGraph, Inc., and an event-study approach, we document a substantial increase on January 6 in non-resident smartphone pings at the sites of the protest: the Ellipse, the National Mall, and the US Capitol Building. Then, using data from the same source and a synthetic control approach, we find that the Capitol riot led to an increase in stay-at-home behavior among District of Columbia residents, consistent with risk avoidance behavior and post-riot policies designed to limit large in-person gatherings. Finally, while we find no evidence that the Capitol riot substantially increased the spread of COVID-19 in the District of Columbia, we do find that counties with the highest inflows of out-of-town protesters experienced a 0.004 to 0.010 increase in the rate of daily cumulative COVID-19 case growth during the month following the event. These findings are exacerbated in counties without COVID-19 mitigation policies in place. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s00148-022-00914-0.

Language: en

Keywords

Capitol riot; COVID-19 spread; Stay-at-home behavior