Citation

Wang J, Yang X, Yu S, Yuan Q, Lian Z, Yang Q. Comput. Commun. 2023; 198: 195-205.

Copyright

(Copyright © 2023, Elsevier Publishing)

DOI

10.1016/j.comcom.2022.12.002

PMID

36506874

PMCID

PMC9726210

Abstract

Road crashes are a major problem for traffic safety management, which usually causes flash crowd traffic with a profound influence on traffic management and communication systems. In 2020, the sudden outbreak of the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic led to significant changes in road traffic conditions. In this paper, by analyzing crash data from 2016 to 2020 and new COVID-19 case data in 2020, we find that the average crash severity and crash deaths during this period (a rapid increase of new COVID-19 cases in 2020) are higher than those in previous four years. Hence, it is necessary to exploit a novel road crash risk prediction model for such an emergency. We propose a novel data-adaptive fatigue focal loss (DA-FFL) method by fusing fatigue factors to establish a road crash risk prediction model under the scenario of large-scale emergencies. Finally, the experimental results demonstrate that DA-FFL performs better than the other typical methods in terms of area under curve (AUC) and false alarm rate (FAR) for imbalanced data. Furthermore, DA-FFL has better prediction performance in convolutional neural networks-long short-term memory (CNN-LSTM).

Language: en

Keywords

COVID-19; Crash risk prediction; Data imbalance; Flash crowd traffic; Large-scale emergencies