Citation

Calatayud J, Jornet M, Mateu J. Stoch. Environ. Res. Risk Assess. 2023; ePub(ePub): ePub.

Copyright

(Copyright © 2023)

DOI

10.1007/s00477-022-02369-x

PMID

36619700

PMCID

PMC9810525

Abstract

We propose a methodology for the quantitative fitting and forecasting of real spatio-temporal crime data, based on stochastic differential equations. The analysis is focused on the city of Valencia, Spain, for which 90247 robberies and thefts with their latitude-longitude positions are available for a span of eleven years (2010-2020) from records of the 112-emergency phone. The incidents are placed in the 26 zip codes of the city (46001-46026), and monthly time series of crime are built for each of the zip codes. Their annual-trend components are modeled by Itô diffusion, with jointly correlated noises to account for district-level relations. In practice, this study may help simulate spatio-temporal situations and identify risky areas and periods from present and past data.

Language: en

Keywords

Differential equations; District-level correlations; Geometric Brownian motion stochastic process; Space-time crime data; Trend time series