Citation

Wu B, Yip TL, Yan X, Mao Z. J. Navig. 2020; 73(3): 559-580.

Copyright

(Copyright © 2020, Royal Institute of Navigation of Great Britain, Publisher Cambridge University Press)

DOI

10.1017/S037346331900081X

PMID

unavailable

Abstract

Navigational accidents (collisions and groundings) account for approximately 85% of mari-time accidents, and consequence estimation for such accidents is essential for both emergency resource allocation when such accidents occur and for risk management in the framework of a formal safety assessment. As the traditional Bayesian network requires expert judgement to develop the graphical structure, this paper proposes a mutual information-based Bayesian network method to reduce the requirement for expert judgements. The central premise of the proposed Bayesian network method involves calculating mutual information to obtain the quantitative element among multiple influencing factors. Seven-hundred and ninety-seven historical navigational accident records from 2006 to 2013 were used to validate the methodology. It is anticipated the model will provide a practical and reasonable method for consequence estimation of navigational accidents.

Language: en

Keywords

Bayesian Network; Consequence Estimation; Mutual Information; Navigational Accidents