Citation

Mori R. J. Navig. 2019; 72(6): 1469-1480.

Copyright

(Copyright © 2019, Royal Institute of Navigation of Great Britain, Publisher Cambridge University Press)

DOI

10.1017/S0373463319000432

PMID

unavailable

Abstract

The accuracy of speed prediction error to the next waypoint is a key factor in maintaining longitudinal separation on oceanic routes. This estimation is often used by air traffic control to estimate the future position of aircraft, and the estimation errors result in potential separation infringement. While most aircraft can calculate the estimated time at each future waypoint using the onboard Flight Management System, the factors affecting the inaccuracy of the estimation require more clarification. This paper investigates the accuracy of the speed prediction error on oceanic routes and examines the main factor of error using airline flight data. The results show that wind prediction error is a main source of speed prediction error, and significant differences of the speed prediction error among airlines and aircraft types were observed.

Language: en

Keywords

Estimated Time of Arrival (ETA); Flight time; Separation standard; Wind