Citation

Ribeiro PF, Moreira F, Canadas MJ, Novais A, Leal M, Oliveira S, Bergonse R, Zêzere JL, Santos JL. Fire (Basel) 2023; 6(3): e102.

Copyright

(Copyright © 2023, MDPI: Multidisciplinary Digital Publications Institute)

DOI

10.3390/fire6030102

PMID

unavailable

Abstract

Landscape patterns and composition were identified as key drivers of fire risk and fire regimes. However, few studies have focused on effective policymaking aimed at encouraging landowners to diversify the landscape and make it more fire-resilient. We propose a new framework to support the design of wildfire mitigation policies aimed at promoting low-risk fire regimes based on land use/land cover choices by landowners. Using the parishes of a fire-prone region in central Portugal as analysis units, a two-step modelling approach is proposed, coupling an agent-based model that simulates land use/land cover choice and a logistic model that predicts fire regimes from a set of biophysical variables reported as important fire regime drivers in the literature. The cost-effectiveness of different policy options aimed at promoting low-risk fire regimes at the parish level is assessed. Our results are in line with those of previous studies defending the importance of promoting landscape heterogeneity by reducing forest concentration and increasing agricultural or shrubland areas as a measure to reduce the risk of wildfire.

RESULTS also suggest the usefulness of the framework as a policy simulation tool, allowing policymakers to investigate how annual payments supporting agricultural or shrubland areas, depending on the policy mix, can be very cost-effective in removing a substantial number of parishes from high-risk fire regimes.

Language: en

Keywords

agent-based modelling; fire regime; fire resilience; land cover choice; wildfire mitigation; wildfire policy