Citation

Li X, Ghosh J, Villarini G. Journal of Applied Statistics 2023; 50(9): 2014-2035.

Copyright

(Copyright © 2023, Sheffield City Polytechnic)

DOI

10.1080/02664763.2022.2063266

PMID

37378269

PMCID

PMC10291923

Abstract

Predicting the annual frequency of tropical storms is of interest because it can provide basic information towards improved preparation against these storms. Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) averaged over the hurricane season can predict annual tropical cyclone activity well. But predictions need to be made before the hurricane season when the predictors are not yet observed. Several climate models issue forecasts of the SSTs, which can be used instead. Such models use the forecasts of SSTs as surrogates for the true SSTs. We develop a Bayesian negative binomial regression model, which makes a distinction between the true SSTs and their forecasts, both of which are included in the model. For prediction, the true SSTs may be regarded as unobserved predictors and sampled from their posterior predictive distribution. We also have a small fraction of missing data for the SST forecasts from the climate models. Thus, we propose a model that can simultaneously handle missing predictors and variable selection uncertainty. If the main goal is prediction, an interesting question is should we include predictors in the model that are missing at the time of prediction? We attempt to answer this question and demonstrate that our model can provide gains in prediction.

Language: en

Keywords

Bayesian model averaging; Bayesian variable selection; count data; Markov chain Monte Carlo; missing covariates; prediction sets