Citation

Liu W, Yang J. China Saf. Sci. J. 2020; 30(4): 186-191.

Copyright

(Copyright © 2020, China Occupational Safety and Health Association, Publisher Gai Xue bao)

DOI

10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2020.04.029

PMID

unavailable

Abstract

In order to provide basic indicators for economic evaluation of rail traffic safety projects, estimation studies on VOSL in rail traffic safety were carried out. Firstly, VOSL calculation model was constructed based on ML model with normal distribution and lognormal distribution. Secondly, route-choice questionnaires were designed with hypothetical scenario of " Dalian to Shenyang route choice", and then survey was conducted and data were obtained. Finally, the model was calibrated by Monte Carlo simulation and comparatively analyzed before VOSL and its distribution function were gained. The results show that ML-2 model with lognormal distribution has high accuracy, whose goodness of fit is 0. 213 5 and hit ratio 82. 49%. VOSL based on ML-2 model obeys lognormal distribution with parameters (0. 615 5,0. 514 82), who has a mathematical expectation of 6. 169 million RMB and reaches the maximum probability at 4. 1 million RMB. © 2020 China Safety Science Journal. All rights reserved.

Language: zh