Citation

Goda K, Zhang L, Tesfamariam S. Risk Anal. 2020; ePub(ePub): ePub.

Copyright

(Copyright © 2020, Society for Risk Analysis, Publisher John Wiley and Sons)

DOI

10.1111/risa.13593

PMID

32935884

Abstract

This study presents a city-wide seismic risk assessment of single-family wooden houses in Victoria, British Columbia, and Canada. The novelty and uniqueness of this study include considerations of detailed building-by-building exposure model for residential houses, current national seismic hazard model for Canada, and rigorous seismic fragility modeling of wooden houses based on nonlinear dynamic analysis of structures subjected to mainshock-aftershock sequences. A full consideration of stochastic event scenarios in probabilistic seismic risk analysis allows the identification of critical scenarios from overall regional seismic risk perspectives and provides valuable insights in informing earthquake disaster risk management actions. Outputs from the developed catastrophe model for Victoria are compared with the empirical model that was developed based on insurance claim data from the 1994 Northridge earthquake.

RESULTS of the seismic loss calculations highlight the importance of seismic resistance of the existing houses and of aftershock effects. The integrated use of the outputs from the advanced catastrophe model facilitates risk-based identification of critical earthquake scenarios, which are useful for different stakeholders for earthquake risk management purposes.

Language: en

Keywords

Critical scenarios; mainshock-aftershock seismic excitations; portfolio analysis; seismic risk; seismic risk management; wooden houses