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Journal Article


Li X, Guo Y, Ge F, Yang F. Safety Sci. 2023; 159: e106021.


(Copyright © 2023, Elsevier Publishing)






The hybrid approach of CREAM (cognitive reliability and error analysis method), fuzzy theory and Bayesian network (BN) was constructed to analyze the reliability of scaffolding operators in this work. A construction site in Fuzhou City (Fujian Province, China) was targeted as an example. Firstly, seven operational and five cognitive subtasks were developed by the characteristics of scaffolding operations. Then, the relational network of the common performance conditions (CPCs) was determined by a BN. Expert evaluation can obtain a priori probabilities. Fuzzy languages were transformed into conditional probabilities by fuzzy theory. The probability distribution of the control model can be determined based on the relational network. Secondly, the human error probabilities (HEPs) of the operational subtasks were calculated based on the center of the area (COA). Based on the influence of the operational subtask on the cognitive subtask, the HEPs of the cognitive subtasks were calculated with BNs. Finally, the total HEP of the scaffolding operation was identified using a series-parallel hybrid structure. The results show that the total HEP of the scaffolding operation at this construction site is 4.30E-03. The scaffolding dismantling and supervisory inspection have a significant impact on human error. Also, site management should strengthen training and education on work methods. This method can provide a new idea for human reliability analysis, as well as a new perspective for the safety of work at height.

Language: en


Bayesian network; CREAM; Fuzzy theory; Human error probability; Human reliability; Scaffold operation


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