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Abstract
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Earlier this year, the Governors Highway Safety Association (GHSA) released a Spotlight on Highway Safety report, Pedestrian Traffic Fatalities by State: 2020 Preliminary Data, that examined pedestrian fatality data for the first six months of 2020. Using the same methods as in prior pedestrian fatality studies, State Highway Safety Offices (SHSOs) – which are tasked with addressing speeding, impaired driving and other behavioral safety issues that contribute to traffic crashes – were asked to provide preliminary counts of pedestrian deaths that occurred from January through June. These numbers provided an early look at 2020 projections many months before data are available from the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration's (NHTSA) Fatality Analysis Reporting System (FARS). The SHSO data used for the Pedestrian Spotlight analysis were preliminary and, in some cases, incomplete. All 50 states and the District of Columbia (D.C.) provided information. When the data were combined, the number of pedestrian fatalities for the first six months of 2020 was projected to be essentially unchanged from the same period in 2019. Based on the preliminary data, 27 states had increases in pedestrian fatalities, 20 states and D.C. had decreases, and three states had no change. As a follow-up to the Pedestrian Spotlight report, this addendum provides additional data analysis for the remaining six months (July-December) of 2020.
METHODOLOGY For this addendum to the Pedestrian Spotlight report, SHSOs were asked to provide preliminary counts of pedestrian deaths that occurred during the second half of 2020, to supplement the data SHSOs previously provided for the first half of 2020. All 50 states and D.C. provided information.
Nationwide, these raw preliminary data indicated that essentially the same number pedestrian fatalities occurred in 2020 (6,410) as in 2019 (6,412). The preliminary data were, however, adjusted using historic differences between preliminary counts of pedestrian fatalities reported by SHSOs and final data provided by SHSOs, approximately one year later. These mathematical adjustments were made on a state-by-state basis. For all states combined, the adjustments increased the preliminary number of pedestrian deaths from 6,410 to a projected number of 6,721, a 4.8% increase for 2020 compared to the number of deaths reported by SHSOs for 2019.
Because of differences between SHSO-reported data and FARS data, this addendum does not make direct comparisons between the two sources. The number of pedestrian fatalities reported by SHSOs are generally higher than the number reported by FARS (about 2% higher nationwide). This occurs because some SHSOs:
i Include deaths that occur more than 30 days after the crash. FARS counts only traffic fatalities that occur within 30 days of the crash.
i Count people on e-scooters, skateboards and other personal conveyances as pedestrians. FARS classifies these fatalities separately from pedestrians.
i Include pedestrian deaths that did not involve a motor vehicle, such as a pedestrian struck by a bicycle. FARS only includes fatal crashes that involve a motor vehicle.
i Include deaths that occur on non-public roads such as parking lots. FARS only includes fatal crashes that occur on public roadways.
The projected increase in pedestrian fatalities in 2020 continues a decade-long pattern of rising pedestrian deaths. As reported in GHSA's Spotlight on Highway Safety, Pedestrian Traffic Fatalities by State: 2020 Preliminary Data, the number of U.S. pedestrian fatalities increased by 46% during the 10-year period 2010-2019. The projected 21% increase in the pedestrian fatality rate in 2020 is both disturbing and surprising given the reduction in VMT in 2020.
It should be noted that adjustments to preliminary SHSO data that resulted in projected increases in pedestrian fatalities in 2020 are based on historic underreporting associated with preliminary (and in some cases incomplete) data. There is no guarantee the preliminary 2020 data provided by SHSOs will follow the same historic pattern of underreporting.
In addition, computations of pedestrian fatality rates per VMT do not take into account pedestrian exposure data. It is possible (but not established) that activity by people on foot increased in 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic, and if so, could have contributed to the increase in projected pedestrian fatalities. There is, however, no national system of estimating the level of pedestrian activity that is analogous to VMT for motor vehicles.
SHSOs and their engineering, education, enforcement and emergency medical services partners are using evidence-based and innovative countermeasures to improve safety for all road users as discussed in GHSA's Pedestrian Traffic Fatalities by State: 2020 Preliminary Data. Projected increases in both the number of pedestrian fatalities and the fatality rate in 2020 reinforce the need to allocate more resources to aggressively implement evidence-based engineering, equitable enforcement, education and EMS countermeasures. |