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Abstract
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That report shows the increased trend in fatalities in 2020 has continued into 2021, and the increased trend in fatality rate per 100 million VMT in 2020 contin- ued into the first quarter of 2021 but decreased during the second, third, and the fourth quarters of 2021. This NHTSA note is being issued after conducting a special analysis of the fatalities and the fatality rates per 100 million VMT by key sub-categories in 2021. The analysis is based on ratio- adjusted estimates of 2021 fatal crash data coded thus far into NHTSA’s Fatality Analysis Reporting System (FARS), as described in the Data and Methodology section.
For the whole of 2021, a statistical projection of traffic fatali- ties shows an increase of about 10.5 percent as compared to reported fatalities in 2020. Some categories showed large shifts in fatalities and fatality rates in a given month, com- pared to the corresponding month in 2020. For instance, the share of fatalities on urban roads went from 57 percent in March 2020 to 62 percent in March 2021, a 5-percentage- point increase. Correspondingly, the total fatalities (fatal- ity counts) on urban roads increased from 21,940 in 2020 to 25,411 in 2021, a 16-percent increase. In summary, the traffic fatalities (fatality counts) in the following categories showed relatively large increases in 2021 as compared to 2020:
- on rural interstate roads (up 15%), urban arterial (up 15%), and urban collector/local (up 20%);
- during daytime (up 11%);
- during the weekend (up 11%);
- during out-of-state travel (up 15%), reversing the trend seen in 2020;
- in newer (vehicle age < 10 years) passenger vehicles (up 10%);
- in multi-vehicle crashes (up 16%);
- in on-road crashes (up 21%);
- in speeding-related crashes (up 5%) – still higher as compared to the pre-pandemic levels of 2019;
- in the 25-to-34 age group (up 10%), the 35-to-44 age group (up 15%), the 45-to-54 age group (up 12%), and the 65-and-older age group (up 14%), reversing the declining trend in fatalities to those 65 and older seen in 2020;
- females (up 12%);
- unrestrained occupants of passenger vehicles (up 3%) – still higher as compared to the pre-pandemic levels of 2019;
- in police-reported alcohol involvement crashes (up 5%) – still higher as compared to the pre-pandemic levels of 2019;
- motorcyclist fatalities (up 9%), continuing the trend seen in 2020;
- pedestrian fatalities (up 13%);
- pedalcyclist fatalities (up 5%); and
- in crashes involving at least one large truck (up 13%), reversing the trend seen in 2020.
Additionally, the trend of the total fatality rate per 100 mil- lion VMT in 2021 was strongly driven by the trends in the fatality rates per 100 million VMT on the rural arterial, rural local/collector/street roadways, and urban arte- rial. Overall, the estimated fatality rate for 2021 was 1.33 fatalities per 100 million VMT, marginally down from the reported 1.34 fatalities per 100 million VMT in 2020. |